Hey there, Sploich here, and Happy New Year! Over at my site, http://www.sploich.com/, I've been predicting the Oscars since about mid-2011 and today marks my last update before the actual nominees are announced. This is a hard year to predict as the nominees, no matter what they are, are going to be rather underwhelming. Regardless, here is what I have come up with and am stuck with from here on out (until February when I predict the winner). For a full list of my predictions (with double the slots in each category as well as links to my full reviews), please go to http://www.sploich.com/oscars/predictions.php. Here is a condensed list, complete with commentary:

BEST PICTURE
1: The Artist
2: The Descendants
3: Moneyball
4: The Ides of March
5: War Horse
6: Midnight in Paris
7: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8: Young Adult
9: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
10: The Help

It's pretty tough picking Best Picture this year because I could honestly see any of the top six taking the prize. And what's more, the rules have changed this year so that there could be anywhere between five and ten nominees. Personally, I love the new system and I wish they would use it for every category (only two-to-ten, for every category), but it does add the extra prediction of having to guess how many nominees there will be. If I had to guess, I would say the top seven get in, if not all ten. I'm thinking I might regret not putting The Help higher, but it got some pretty mixed feelings from people I talked to.

BEST PICTURE, ANIMATED
1: The Adventures of Tintin
2: Rango
3: Rio
4: Arthur Christmas
5: Winnie the Pooh

There's been a lot of controversy over Tintin and whether it counts under the Academy's rules about motion capture, but after having seen the movie I can understand why it ended up on the shortlist. The motion capture is there but there is so much animation going on outside of that that I have no problem with it counting. Also this is another category with new rules, this one only allows between two and five nominees. I would guess that the top two get nominated only. It was a good year for animated films, but I can't imagine any other movies getting enough votes to qualify.

BEST PICTURE, FOREIGN LANGUAGE
1: A Separation
2: Le Havre
3: Where Do We Go Now?
4: In Darkness
5: Miss Bala

This is one of a few categories that is nearly impossible for me to accurately predict, just because I don't get much of a chance to see anything that might get nominated. This list is based strictly off of the movies' reviews on IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes, and even then I'm really not sure what people think of them. The only one I've seen a trailer for is A Separation, and it does look pretty great. The rest are a complete mystery to me.

BEST PICTURE, DOCUMENTARY
1: Battle for Brooklyn
2: Buck
3: Bill Cunningham New York
4: Semper Fi: Always Faithful
5: Pina

I'm not even sure what I based these predictions on. I probably did the same as the Foreign Language category but honestly it was so long ago and I haven't touched it since. Of the ten movies I was predicting before the shortlist came out, only two or three of them were actually on it, so you can just take these predictions as a grain of salt (not that they won't count against me when the actual nominations come out).

BESTDIRECTION
1: The Artist
2: Midnight in Paris
3: The Ides of March
4: War Horse
5: Moneyball

I keep going back and forth on this category in my head. Any of these five could win it, but I feel bad leaving out The Descendants, which may before well take War Horse's spot on the list. I may regret that one later, but for now this is how I think it'll go down. I'm just not entirely sure if The Artist will be able to take it when it's up against Woody Allen, George Clooney and Steven Spielberg.

BEST ACTOR
1: Jean Dujardin for The Artist
2: George Clooney for The Descendants
3: Brad Pitt for Moneyball
4: Michael Fassbender for Shame
5: Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

No DiCaprio love on my list. Before the movie became such a flop he was everybody's number one choice, but since then everybody has lost interest in the role. Maybe he'll show up in the end but for now I think they blew it (though to be fair I haven't actually seen J. Edgar myself). I think Dujardin is easily the one to beat here, but Clooney could pull it off. i can't imagine Pitt would actually win but I also can't imagine him not getting nominated. I'm just really hoping Michael Fassbender shows up in this category because he's becoming one of my favorite actors.

BEST ACTRESS
1: Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn
2: Charlize Theron for Young Adult
3: Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs
4: Viola Davis for The Help
5: Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady

Another tough one. I'm not entirely convinced about Theron will end up in here but if she does then I think she's in the right spot. Rooney Mara might show up for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo but for some reason I haven't been able to see that happening. As you can see by now, there's a running theme this year of me being incredibly insecure in my predictions. I wasn't like this last year. Don't expect that to go away though because there are plenty of categories to go.

BEST ACTOR, SUPPORTING
1: Christopher Plummer for Beginners
2: Albert Brooks for Drive
3: Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn
4: George Clooney for The Ides of March
5: Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Ides of March

A much more solid category. The only one I'm iffy about is Hoffmanwho could be taken out by either Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method or Jim Broadbent in The Iron Lady. Maybe Jonah Hill might even get nominated? All I know is that I would absolutely love it if Andy Serkis got nominated for Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

BEST ACTRESS, SUPPORTING
1: Bérénice Bejo for The Artist
2: Octavia Spencer for The Help
3: Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs
4: Vanessa Redgrave for Coriolanus
5: Shailene Woodley for The Descendants

Relatively solid, although apparently Jessica Chastain might get nominated for The Help. I don't see it, but this is a weird year. All I know is that after seeing A Dangerous Method, Kiera Knightley better not get nominated.

BEST WRITING, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1: Midnight in Paris
2: The Artist
3: Young Adult
4: Rango
5: 50/50

I just realized I have four comedies getting nominated, and now I'm not entirely sure that will happen. But compared to everything else out there and all the negative reviews the second half of my list got, this is what I feel most confident with. I really hope 50/50 if in there because that was easily one of my favorites of the year, plus the story behind it might get it a few points. Rango might just be wishful thinking, but we'll see.

BEST WRITING, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1: The Descendants
2: War Horse
3: Moneyball
4: The Ides of March
5: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

This is much tougher. Six, seven and eight on my list are Carnage, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and The Help, respectively, and any of those could potentially jump in. I just really hope The Help doesn't because that movie had so many problems in its third act. I'd love to see Carnage in there, but then again I'd love to see Carnage period. I think it's just one of those categories with too many possible nominees to fill all the slots.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1: The Artist
2: War Horse
3: Super 8
4: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
5: Hugo

What a great year for this category, with so many movies that could get in there. But I'm pretty confident these five are the ones to beat, and that The Artist is going to have a lot of competition from the other four. Personally, I would love to see Super 8 win because that movie had some of the most astonishing cinematography I've seen in a movie in decades. Just sad to think Captain America won't make the cut, if my list is correct.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2: Captain America: The First Avenger
3: Hugo
4: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
5: Thor

Oh how I wish Real Steel would get some recognition here, but it's just up against too big of candidates. And how can you even fight against a movie like Rise, which will win for the orangutan alone, or Captain America with its incredible transformation of the lead character into a scrawny weakling? Unfortunately I'm really worried about Tranformers: Dark of the Moon showing up here, but I doubt it will happen.

BEST ART DIRECTION
1: The Artist
2: Hugo
3: War Horse
4: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
5: Captain America: The First Avenger

I'm really rooting for Cap here, with that beautiful 1940s propaganda-style look and feel throughout. But The Artist deserves it the most for so intensely emulating the movies to which it is paying homage. Just as long as The Tree of Life doesn't show up here. If you haven't seen my review, go find it on my site. Let's just say I'm not a fan.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1: The Artist
2: Hugo
3: The Iron Lady
4: War Horse
5: The Help

I feel like I might have picked the more popular films over the more likely films in this category. I'm always wrong on costumes, and almost every year (or at least in the last couple) there is one movie that gets nominated that I haven't even heard of. Who really knows? Still, these seem right. I think I used to have A Dangerous Method higher up until somebody in the theater made a joke about how terrible the costumes were, triggering me to realize that she was absolutely right.

BEST MAKEUP
1: The Artist
2: Captain America: The First Avenger
3: The Iron Lady
4: Albert Nobbs
5: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

I'm really thinking Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Green Lantern might sneak in here. Again, I'm rooting for Cap, but you can't deny that the Red Skull makeup, as well as the rest of the makeup in the film, is pretty damn good.

BEST EDITING, FILM
1: The Artist
2: War Horse
3: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
4: Moneyball
5: The Ides of March

How can a silent film not at least get nominated in this category, especially when the editing is as great as it is in The Artist? I know I have The Artist winning a lot of these but it really feels like that kind of year. I'm not entirely sure about The Ides of March making it, but I'm not sure about anything else taking its place either.

BEST EDITING, SOUND
1: The Artist
2: Super 8
3: War Horse
4: The Adventures of Tintin
5: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

I have to admit that I'm not so sure The Artist will even get nominated here, but if it doesn't I will be disappointed. I can totally see Rango sneaking in and maybe even Captain America. I also just realized that Hugo is not within my ten slots for this category, and I might end up feeling that's a mistake later on.

BEST SOUND
1: War Horse
2: Super 8
3: Rango
4: Captain America: The First Avenger
5: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

I'm pretty apathetic about this category this year. All the movies I have in the top seven slots feel right, though I'm not entirely sure about the order. Tintin could easily slip in, but I don't know whose place it would take. This is another one where Transformers could show up out of nowhere, like the last one did a couple years ago.

BEST SONG
1: "Lay Your Head Down" from Albert Nobbs
2: "Life's a Happy Song" from The Muppets
3: "Star Spangled Man" from Captain America: The First Avenger
4: "Hello Hello" from Gnomeo & Juliet
5: "The Living Proof" from The Help

This is always my favorite category because it's always fun listening to all these songs, and they usually pick the right ones. I'm pretty sure this year will have five nominees, and I hate that I have to narrow it to only that many when "So Long" from Winnie the Pooh and "Bridge of Light" from Happy Feet Two are out there. I'm also a huge fan of Rio and its sad to see how unlikely it will be that anything from that will actually get nominated. Apparently people didn't care for it but it's my second-favorite movie of the year (right behind ol' Cap).

BEST SCORE
1: War Horse
2: The Artist
3: The Adventures of Tintin
4: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

This is always a hard one for me because I never listen to the score while I'm watching the movie. The only time I listen to the score is when it's just that good, and I hate to say that this rarely happens. But when you have a movie like The Artist that depends almost entirely on its score, it's really great that they had such a beautiful one to work with. Either that or War Horse will probably take it, and I figure War Horse will because it's more epic.

BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
1: Love at First Sight
2: The Road Home
3: Pentecost
4: Sailcloth
5: I Could Be Your Grandmother

Ooh boy! Another category of films I've never seen and probably won't ever get to see! This list is almost completely random as I couldn't find much info on almost any of the shorts on the list.

BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
1: Magic Piano
2: Paths of Hate
3: La Luna
4: Specky Four-Eyes
5: Luminaris

This one is based solely on the synopses for each that I could find online compared to what normally gets nominated and/or wins. All I know is whatever wins is usually pretty deep and very artistic, and that Pixar almost always gets nominated and almost never wins.

BEST SHORT FILM, DOCUMENTARY
1: In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypt's Unfinished Revolution
2: Incident in New Baghdad
3: Pipe Dreams
4: The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
5: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Completely random. Rather a let-down of an ending to this whole thing, but there it is. I have absolutely no idea what's going to show up here and I almost don't even care because of how hard it is to find documentary shorts that have been nominated for Oscars.

And that's all I've got! Again, for an easy to read list of my predictions, including links to my reviews of each of the movies (the ones I have so far reviewed, of course), please go to http://www.sploich.com/oscars/predictions.php. And for reviews of movies in general, both new releases and old, please visit my website at http://www.sploich.com/ and subscribe to the RSS feed. And don't forget to Like Sploich.com on Facebook and follow Sploich.com on Twitter! I am completely shameless in my plugs.